Target Point

A Michigan Bellwether

On November 3 most pundits and political watchers will be focused on the VA and NJ governor contests as well as a very interesting congressional race in upstate NY. These are being touted as the bellwether races that will determine whether or not an anticipated GOP and conservative resurgence is likely in 2010.

There is a fourth race however that should be added to this list. A special election to fill Michigan's 19th State Senate seat...

Predictive Analytics World

Last week I attended the second gathering of Predictive Analytics World, a conference of predictive analytics (PA) practitioners in which they share case studies, best practices, tips, tricks and war stories.  The days there proved to be an invaluable resource, and I’ve outlined below just a handful of my key takeaways from the conference:

Balancing VA and NJ – Let’s Not Buy a Landslide

 In the next month Republicans have a great opportunity to secure the Governor’s offices in both NJ and VA. 

After a tough September, conventional wisdom has turned back in favor of a likely win in VA.  This wisdom received statistical validation in the Washington Post’s latest survey (http://bit.ly/NgZr5 ).  The survey shows Attorney General Bob McDonnell re-opening a nine point lead on his opponent – 53% - 44% among likely voters.  The news is even more encouraging when you look inside the numbers...

Shifting Party Trends?

As we enter the last turn before Election Day 2009, with important elections in New Jersey and Virginia, I thought it would be interesting to look at party identification trends.  Gallup provides a good resource for studying this; while some criticize Gallup for not weighing for party identification in their polls, and frequently showing large fluctuation in party identification from one poll to the next, the unweighted data they collect provides an excellent resource for measuring trends over a longer period...

The Problem with Gitmo

This last week we received word that the White House is “regrouping” as the deadline to close the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay looms.  This is an unsurprising and fully predictable turn of events.  Indeed, the manner in which Obama’s Gitmo policy has unfolded since his inauguration tells a story of the revelatory nature of public opinion polling and its ensuing role in political decision making. 

Shortly after the November election...