Good News in the WaPost Survey?
Republicans across the country were given a shot of good news when most the recent Washington Post/ABC News Poll was released earlier this month. The poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell taking an early and surprisingly large lead in the race to become Virginia’s next Governor. The Post spends considerable time explaining why McDonnell is ahead and even devotes a second story to the poll called “Behind the Poll Numbers” that offers a deep a look at the numbers and what they mean.
Interestingly, none of these stories highlight the fact that Democratic Party ID has fallen to its lowest level in the 20 year history of the survey. Democrat Party ID stood at only 27% among likely voters.
Given all the hype surrounding the Obama campaign and especially about its “unprecedented” voter registration efforts in the state, one would have expected a big jump in Party ID, not a decline of 25% from its highs just prior to Election Day.
The best news for Republicans may be in the gap in party ID among likely voters – this measure of intensity and enthusiasm shows a Republican advantage of PLUS 7 among likely voters. This is the largest advantage ever measured in the survey and completely erases the 8 point disadvantage Republicans had heading into Election Day 2008.
We all know August is a long way from November and we have a lot of work yet to do, but things look a lot better this August than they did at this time a year ago.
- Michael Meyers
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