Balancing VA and NJ – Let’s Not Buy a Landslide
In the next month Republicans have a great opportunity to secure the Governor’s offices in both NJ and VA.
After a tough September, conventional wisdom has turned back in favor of a likely win in VA. This wisdom received statistical validation in the Washington Post’s latest survey (http://bit.ly/NgZr5 ). The survey shows Attorney General Bob McDonnell re-opening a nine point lead on his opponent – 53% - 44% among likely voters. The news is even more encouraging when you look inside the numbers where McDonnell leads on enthusiasm measures and is more trusted on the core GOP issues of Economy and Jobs, Transportation, budgets, gun control and taxes as well as more traditional Democrat issues of Health Care and Education.
In New Jersey, however, the Beltway conventional wisdom has been souring on our chances. This is in spite of the fact that are WINNING in this race. Pollster.com’s polling averages show Christie leading 42-40 and a poll released this week by Penn Shoen & Berland (the Clintons’ pollsters) shows Christie leading by five points – 43% – 38% (http://bit.ly/hAOwi).
By fretting about the race, instead of making sure the campaign has the money and resources, we are putting into peril a tremendous opportunity to add a new Republican voice in a part of the country sorely in need of conservative leadership. Despite months of unfair attacks from John Corzine’s political machine, Chris Christie remains in the lead and most importantly remains the first of choice of Jersey residents on key issues. A recent Rasmussen poll (http://bit.ly/potk )released this week shows Christie with a 13 point lead on handling taxes (the state’s top issue) a 20 point lead on government spending and a 16 point lead on cracking down on corruption. The presence of a third-party challenger has complicated the race here, but also made it absolutely clear that Corzine cannot possibly get 50% of the vote. Unlike most races, we no longer have to convince people that our opponent is wrong for New Jersey – 60% of the state has already decided Corzine should go. Our final challenge is making sure that these voters rally to the Christie, rather than giving their vote to a third-party candidate and handing the governorship back to one of America’s least popular governors.
As the election season draws to a close, there will be a temptation to “go with the winner” and I fear that many Republican donors and conservative organizations will be tempted to bring more and more resources to bear in Virginia, while passing on the opportunity to win in New Jersey. We must resist this temptation and remain committed to both races. Clearly we need to be sure we run through the tape in Virginia and restore Republican leadership to this traditional red state, but we must avoid the temptation to buy a landslide. We have the opportunity to turn a blue state red and send a real message to Congressional Democrats that an agenda of massive government expansion, uncontrolled spending and their inevitable tax increases will not serve them well at the ballot box next fall.
We can win in New Jersey and in Virginia, but only if we are smart and work together to be sure both campaigns get the resources and attention they need.
- Michael Meyers
Comments on this entry