Target Point

Raise The Roof

Democrats could literally raise the roof by increasing the federal debt ceiling by a staggering $1.8 trillion before the end of this year.  While they surely hoped that they could bury this issue during a time of general American holiday credit gluttony, the nation’s, and particularly Republican voters’, view of fiscal issues has decidedly changed since Obama took office last January.

The spending spree began as soon as the inauguration, and looking back at the data, Democrats probably felt safe in doing so.   In Pew’s January 2009 research, only half of the public (53%) ranked “reducing the budget deficit” as a top priority  – far outweighed by issues such as the economy (85%), jobs (82%) and terrorism (76%).  Even Republicans weren’t driven by the issue and ranked the least likely to choose “reducing the deficit” as a top priority – 51% (52% amongst Democrats and 57% amongst Independents).

Today, the picture has changed.  As spending has increased, so has disapproval of Obama’s handling of the federal budget deficit.  Pew saw a dramatic shift of Obama’s disapproval on the budget deficit: in July 53% disapproved (32% approve), up from 38% disapprove (50% approve) in April.  Gallup saw a similar shift on this issue, with Obama’s disapproval on the federal budget deficit moving from 44% in March to 58% in September.

Strikingly, Pew saw the greatest shift on the deficit amongst Democrats with Obama’s approval on that issue dropping 24 percentage points from July to April (18 point amongst Independents and 11 points amongst Republicans).

With disapproval of the federal budget deficit on the rise, another item of note from The Washington Post’s surveys is the uptick in trust of Republicans in Congress to handle the federal budget deficit.  In September, The Washington Post saw 36% of those surveyed trusting Republicans to do a better job handling the economy, up from 30% in June.  While not a staggering increase, the noted increase in disapproval of Obama’s handling of the federal budget deficit combined with the Democrats’ plan to raise the federal budget deficit ceiling bodes well for Republicans in 2010.

Midterms in mind, the Washington Post’s June and November surveys indicate great potential for Republicans to harness the deficit issue.  The Post’s surveys of Republicans and lean Republicans saw an uptick in these voters considering themselves fiscal conservatives – 81% in November compared to 70% in June.  While there may be an increase in fiscal conservatism amongst these voters, it appears that they don’t believe the party is focusing their energy accordingly, with 60% believing the party spends too little time focusing on federal spending (28% the right amount and 11% too much).

Looking at these numbers and anticipating a negative reaction to the Democrat debt ceiling decision (even if it has a holiday bow on it), the apex of disapproval of the deficit should be just in time for the height of 2010 campaigning.  The prevalence of this issue is certain to not only persuade voters who may have chosen a Democrat in 2006 or 2008 to reconsider Republicans, but also to turn out those Republican voters that may have chosen to stay home the past two cycles.

- Alicia Davis Downs