Dissatisfaction & Elections
On Friday Gallup released state by state results which measure overall satisfaction with an individual’s standard of living.
The results portend more bad news for Democrats, but also send warning signs to some Republicans.
In the “when it rains it pours category” the news is the worst for embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose constituents report the lowest level of satisfaction of any state in the Union. Only 69% report being satisfied with their current standard of living, and it is one of only 5 states to show a decline of 1% or more when compared to 2008 numbers. Also in this category we see more bad news for Governor Charlie Crist in his attempt to beat back a strong primary challenge from Marco Rubio – Florida ranks 46th on the list.
Looking at the other states near the bottom of the satisfaction survey, Democrat hopes of retaining Governor’s mansions in the key states of Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee will be hampered by these states ranking 49th, 48th and 42nd in overall satisfaction.
All is not perfectly rosy for Republicans – keeping the Rhode Island governorship will be complicated by the this state’s poor satisfaction ranking – falling behind only Nevada. We also face some head winds in places like Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, but these states should be more insulated due to their conservative electorates and are less likely to swing to Democrats in a year such as this appears to be shaping into. GOP chances in Hawai’i looks to be a case of good news / bad news. Hawai’i currently ranks 9th in overall satisfaction, but saw the steepest decline from 2008. So Lt. Governor Duke Aiona, a terrific candidate, will have to find a way to identify with past successes of the last 8 years, while demonstrating that the last year has been difficult on many of his state’s people.
There is also good news for two of the Republican Parties brightest stars. Minnesota, under the leadership of Tim Pawlenty ranks 4th overall and saw a nearly 4% increase in satisfaction over 2008. Meanwhile, Governor Haley Barbour’s leadership has lead Mississippi to see the largest jump in satisfaction of any state in country.
Finally, we note the cruel irony for Democrats in North Dakota. Ranking as the most satisfied state, we would assume that this is the state least likely to throw out an incumbent, but this is the state with the most shocking Democrat retirement, virtually handing the Republicans a free US Senate seat.
Personal satisfaction does not always translate into electoral results, but it is one more indicator pointing in the right direction for the GOP heading into 2010.
- Michael Meyers
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