2nd Survey of MI Political Insiders
An Insiders’ Look at Politics in the Great Lakes State
TargetPoint along with its Partners Kolt Communications and Sterling Corporation have released the second set of findings in 2010 from their Capitol Caucus (full press release here).
This poll focuses on the two parties' nomination races for Attorney General. The Caucus sees Bill Schuette as the prohibitive favorite in the Republican race, placing his chances of winning at 74%. Although long considered the front runner, the strong results are somewhat surprising in that his opponent is the Senate Majority Leader, with whom most of the people in the Caucus work with and for on a daily basis. In addition to finding solid support among political insiders, the former Congressman, State Senator and Appeals Court Judge has announced a slew of endorsements from both Republican grassroots activists and law enforcement officers around the state.
The results are nearly as strong on the Democratic side, with insiders predicting a matchup with Richard Bernstein. Bernstein is a trial lawyer from metro Detroit and is son of long time trial lawyer Sam Bernstein, made famous by his millions of dollars in TV ads running over the past several decades touting his moniker of 1-800-CALL-SAM. The Caucus rated his chances of securing his Party’s nomination at 64%.
Despite Schuette’s impressive resume and years of service, Bernstein’s multi-million dollar family fortune likely ensures a tough race for the office come November.
The Caucus also took a second look at the Democratic field for Governor, after all of the Democrats top-tier recruiting targets decided to take a pass on the race. The Caucus continues to see a tight race between Speaker of the House Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. According to Democratic consultant Robert Kolt this is a potentially bad sign for Speaker Dillon, "With self-funded candidates out of the Democratic race for Governor, I'm surprised Speaker Dillon did not perform better among our Capitol insiders. The insiders know a lot more about the politicians as people and campaigners than the general public do, and his survey results do not speak well for the Speaker". Dillon is given a 38% chance of securing the nomination (up from 31% in last month’s survey), while Bernero is one point behind at 37% (up from 29% in the last survey). Dan Kildee is a newcomer to the Democratic field and is not being dismissed, despite his late entry. Caucus members rate his chances at solid 26%. Dan is the nephew of long time Congressman Dale Kildee is a former Treasurer of Genesee County.
The great unanswered question on the Democratic side is whether or not organized labor will coalesce around a single candidate – mostly likely either Bernero or Kildee. Stay tuned to find out and let us know what you think of the Democratic field.
- Michael Meyers
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