Target Point

Party ID Trends March 2010

After a reasonably successful run in 2009, including great races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, and the stunning Republican Senate pickup on Massachusetts  we enter an election cycle with Republicans feeling optimistic for the first time since 2004.    Republican pollsters and consultants can now point out, that for the first time in years, independents lean Republican.

Gallup provides an excellent data set to review party self-identification. Reviewing party self-identification trends beginning in 2004, one can see this is true.  About 16 or 17% of Americans identify themselves as independent but lean Republican; about 14% of Americans identify themselves as independent but lean Democratic.  This puts the Republican Party at about a 42 to 35% advantage on party identification among self-described independents.

While that is a positive stat for Republicans going in to the 2010 elections, there are still structural obstacles to overcome before Republicans can put a big Election Day in the bank.

Below are five key observations about party self-identification Republicans need to be aware of:

1. Republicans are still at a disadvantage on “hard ID” to Democrats
2. While the Democrats’ advantage over Republicans has declined it is due to a decline in the number of Americans identifying as Democrats.
3. There has been a rise of independent voters – but it has not yet matched the level it had in 2007.
4. Including leaners, Republicans are nearing parity with Democrats.
5. After a bad stretch for the Republican Party beginning in 2006, the party is still not in as good of a position as it was around the 2004 election.

In midterm elections enthusiasm and momentum are keys to turning out supporters.  It certainly appears that Republicans have both right now.  But it is notable that Republicans are still working from a smaller base (hard party identification) than Democrats.

Republican Hard Identification Disadvantage

Looking at the trend for Republican identification one can see that the party has not had more than 30% of Americans identify as Republican since August 2006.  The overall trend has been relatively flat, averaging about 28%, despite a period of re-polarization around the 2008 elections.  The party averages today about 28% - Republicans have not convinced independent voters to identify as Republican.

Democrats Advantage Narrows

Democratic identification peaked twice in 2008 at about 38% of Americans, the latter in December; since then there has been a steady decline to about 31 or 32% - where it rests today.  In any case the Republicans disadvantage has shrunk from about 11-points to about 4 today – and the trend looks bad for Democrats.

Rise in “Independents"

There is a growing association of Americans as independents, though not quite as dramatic as it was in the late summer and fall of 2007, when more than 40% of Americans described themselves as “independent”.  Current trends have independents at just less than 40% of the population.  But as strategists and pundits point out, the political leanings of these independents has been evenly split or to the advantage of Republicans for several months now. 

Republicans Near Parity with Democrats

Because of the declining base of self-identified Democrats and the increase of Republican leaning independents, party identification including leaning independents is nearing parity.  Identification as Republican, including leaning independents, is about 45% - the same measure for Democrats is 46%.  Not in 48 months (since 2005) have more Americans identified as Republican than Democrats.  The Republican disadvantage has reached as high as 16-points twice - both times in early April, once in 2008 and again in 2009.  Even so Republicans still have a ways to go to equal the environment they ran in during the fall of 2004.

No doubt,  Republicans are running in the best environment (in terms of party ID) in years and Democrats are facing a difficult environment, but it is worth noting that Republicans still have ground to gain, particularly expanding their base beyond the 28% of Americans who identify with the party.  Virtually the entire rise of Republican identification including leaners has been by the addition of the leaners.  Republican leaners now account for about one-third of the 45% of American who identify as or lean Republican.  This is potentially problematic because of the unstable, fickle nature of the politically independent population.

Republicans need to set a goal of converting these leaners now test driving the party and build a base of hard ID at or above 30% of the population.  And more importantly the Republican Party and candidates need to carefully study these leaners, message them accordingly and make those leaning Republican independents a focus of their fall get-out-the-vote efforts.

Turnout operations are critical in midterm elections and statewide and local campaigns can have a have great effect on turnout because they are not running in the shadow of a Presidential Election.  Roughly six months before elections Republicans are in a strong position for a lot of reasons, including party ID trends.  Now is not the time to rest however, there is still work the Republican Party and candidates can do to strengthen and stabilize their position both for the upcoming mid-terms and for the longer term success of the Party.

- Brent Seaborn