by Annabella Pascarelli
Introduction
This Fall, Americans will be lining up at the poll booths to cast their ballot for their elected officials, including President. Swing states area also known as battleground states and for good reason – both Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s campaigns will be expected to concentrate their efforts on winning over the voters in these states.
Overview:
Historically, swing states have changed depending on the year and the candidates; however, in the past few presidential elections, there have been seven standouts: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The latest national polls show Donald Trump boasting an early lead in six out of the seven swing states however, there are still months of campaigning that could contribute to possible voter movement.
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Arizona | 49% | 42% |
| Georgia | 49% | 39% |
| Michigan | 49% | 42% |
| Nevada | 50% | 38% |
| North Carolina | 46% | 38% |
| Pennsylvania | 47% | 44% |
| Wisconsin | 45% | 47% |
Candidate Focus on Policy Issues
Voters in swing states have vocalized the main policy issues influencing their ballot. Here are the some of the top issues:
- In all seven swing states, at least one-fifth of the population noted their anxiety over the current state of the economy, including the rising cost of housing and health care
- Six out of seven swing states (excluding North Carolina) listed immigration as another driving factor
- Preserving democracy remained a main concern in four out of the seven swing states.
- Education and crime were each mentioned respectively as a main issue in Nevada and Pennsylvania
Deep Dive into Policy Issue: Economy
Topline Statistics
The Biden Administration inherited a fragile American economy, due to COVID-19; however, the Democrat Party’s push for “Bidenomics” has exacerbated former economic weaknesses, harming the average American citizen. Inflation has remained at or above 3 percent for 37 straight months, outpacing both year-over-year real average hourly earnings and real average weekly earnings for just over two years of Biden’s presidency. On average, Americans have seen a 4.4 percent pay cut in their weekly wages, as opposed to an 8.2 percent raise in 2020. Since March 2022, the middle-class has lost $2.4 trillion in real wealth, costing the average middle-class household over $33,000. The decline in real wealth has manifested itself in an all-time high total household debt of $17.69 trillion.
Given rising inflation and an unstable job market, 66 percent of Americans worry they will be unable to pay one month of expenses if they were to lose their job, and 65 percent of Americans report living paycheck-to-paycheck. Rising costs have instilled anxiety in American households, who are being forced to choose between saving for their retirement and affording basic daily needs. Over 50 percent of Americans say they are concerned they will be unable to secure funds for retirement.
No matter current political polarization among voters, one thing remains clear: the economy will be a deciding factor in the 2024 election.
Swing State’s Key Concern: Economy
| Swing State | Percentage of Voters Concerned w/ Economy |
| Arizona | 20% |
| Georgia | 24% |
| Michigan | 31% |
| Nevada | 26% |
| North Carolina | 36% |
| Pennsylvania | 36% |
| Wisconsin | 31% |
Candidate Strategy on the Economy
President Biden and Former President Trump’s campaigns have both composed strategies on how to effectively communicate their records on the economy, as they campaign in the swing-states. Joe Biden plans to focus on his legislative accomplishments, specifically the Inflation Reduction Act, and their impact on the growth of the manufacturing industry to demonstrate his commitment to the American economy. On the other hand, President Trump is using current record-breaking inflation to sympathize with United States citizens who are feeling the impact of Biden’s economic policies.
Arizona
The Inflation Reduction Act has contributed to an economic boom in Arizona, and Biden plans to use the legislation’s impact on semiconductor production to illustrate his administration’s positive impact on the Arizona manufacturing industry. Moreover, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act contributed to a $24 billion investment into Arizona’s green energy sector. While these laws are sure to have a positive impact on Arizonan infrastructure, economist Lee McPheters, notes that the investment has yet to contribute to significant job growth; and therefore, Arizona voters are more focused on inflation and rising rent prices. To ensure success in Arizona, President Biden will need to inspire hope for future job and industry growth.
Trump’s campaign will capitalize on soaring rent and consumer prices in Arizona to prove the Biden Administration’s inability to create an economy that actively benefits the average voter. Median rent for apartments in Arizona increased 30 percent in the three years since Biden took office. Moreover, area prices have increased 1.9 percent from March to May for an overall 2.6 percent increase in consumer prices, compared to this time one year ago. Historically a Republican stronghold, Trump’s campaign could regain Arizona in the 2024 election by continuing to draw correlations between the Biden presidency and a higher cost of living in Arizona.
Georgia
Atlanta and other urban areas in Georgia have been a hotspot for investments in green technology under President Biden. Since 2020, the Biden Administration has helped to secure two major green energy projects: the expansion of solar panel production and the creation of a new clean battery manufacturing plan. Combined, the two projects are estimated to bring $4.2 billion in investment and 3200 jobs to the Peach State. While these infrastructure projects will have smaller impacts on Georgian citizens in the short-term, the Biden campaign is confident that they will have enough time to communicate the benefits of these investments to constituents. Moreover, they are hoping to use these two projects to demonstrate the effectiveness of Joe Biden’s legislation in infrastructure projects.
The Trump campaign is focusing their efforts in Georgia on voters’ opinions of the current economy, specifically Black American voters, to drum up support. A recent Quinnipiac University poll of Georgia voters showed that while most Georgians are comfortable with their personal finances, they are pessimistic about the future of their economy. 70 percent of Georgians view the economy as ‘not so good’ or ‘poor,’ with 44 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Independents in agreement. 92 percent of Black registered voters noted that inflation and the overall cost of living are among their top policy concerns. In March, Atlanta boasted the 11th highest rate of overall inflation nationwide, offering a unique opportunity for the Trump campaign to appeal to black voters, a demographic that the Republican Party has yet to consistently capture.
Michigan
In Michigan, Biden is focused on presenting his sweeping subsidies for new clean-tech manufacturers and increase on cheap goods from China to depict his dedication to the ‘American rustbelt.’ Like Arizona and Georgia, Biden has used federal spending to increase investment in green technology, specifically electronic vehicles, to create more manufacturing jobs. A staunch pro-Union President, Biden has also focused on his partnership with the United Auto Workers to communicate his loyalty to blue-collar workers in Michigan. The Financial Times emphasized Biden’s ally in Governor Whitmer, who has joined the President at multiple events to show support for Biden’s policies in Michigan.
Given Biden’s focus on investment in infrastructure, former President Trump is centering his message to Michiganders on prolonging Trump-era tax cuts that benefitted the middle class. Republicans are focusing on the Democrat Party’s promise to discontinue Trump-era tax cuts, which will amount to a tax hike of almost $2000 for individuals earning $75,000 a year, and $3000 for a family of four earning $165,000. With sky-high inflation and stagnant wages, Michiganders are happy to be able to keep some extra change in their pockets. Biden has yet to publish a tax plan that addresses the middle class; rather, he has continued to be a strong supporter of extra taxes on the uber-wealthy. Trump can use this to his advantage in the upcoming months.
Nevada
Though the Silver State only has six electoral votes, it remains one of the most coveted states to win in the upcoming election. Along with the creation of the Brightline West High-Speed Rail Project, Biden’s economic campaign in Nevada will also touch on boosting affordable housing. As of February, housing costs have attributed to roughly two-thirds of nationwide annual inflation, disproportionately harming Nevadan citizens. Biden has assured voters in Nevada that increasing access to housing and decreasing housing cost will be a priority of his administration, given a second term. The campaign has not rolled out any plans as to how they will put their ideas into action aside from reaching a settlement with the National Association of Realtors to alter the commission system in Nevada.
On top of unaffordable housing, Nevada also has the worst unemployment rate in the country and some of the highest gas and grocery prices. Out of control costs of living have made Las Vegas more unattractive to working-class Americans, specifically construction workers, who left areas like Southern California for Nevada to enjoy a more affordable lifestyle. Overall, prices have climbed 6 percent in Las Vegas in just one year. The Trump campaign has made sure to capitalize on the dwindling quality of life in Nevada, because of the Biden administration’s policies, to appeal to blue-collar workers, who remain a key voter group in Nevada.
North Carolina
While the Republican Party has consistently won North Carolina’s electoral votes, the margin has been decreasing with each election. This year, President Biden is using his administration’s investment into rural counties to close the gap even further. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars in private and federal investment into companies and communities in North Carolina. Under Biden, the annual rate of factory construction spending in North Carolina doubled to $223 billion. Spending and investment have been allocated to reviving the computer chip sector.
While factory construction spending may have increased, the Trump campaign will not let North Carolinians forget the negative impact that inflation has had on their pockets and households. Consumer autonomy has dwindled due to Biden’s economic policies, and 52 percent of registered voters in North Carolina say that inflation concerns have affected a lot of their spending decisions in the previous year. 34 percent say that inflation has affected some of their spending decisions. 44 percent of North Carolinians also states that they were worse off financially than they were a year ago. Lastly, the housing market in North Carolina has become increasingly unaffordable, with single-family homes jumping 14 percent in cost.
Pennsylvania
A Scranton native, Biden is planning to use his roots to Pennsylvania and Trump’s out-of-touch lifestyle, to communicate his economic policy. The campaign is electing a strategy of ‘economic populism’ to argue that Biden, being from a small town, understands the struggles and obstacles of the average Pennsylvanian, while his opponent’s wealthy lifestyle makes him incapable of understanding the needs of Americans. President Biden will also heavily focus on his tax policy, which aims to increase taxes on the wealthy to fund social programs. Biden, with support from his Democrat colleagues, has promised to increase the corporate tax rate to 28 percent and implement a capital gains tax on Americans earning more than $1 million.
The message of Trump’s strategy in Pennsylvania is clear: ‘Bidenomics’ is failing. Since Biden took office, prices in Pennsylvania have risen 17.5 percent, costing the average Pennsylvania family an extra $914 per month. Average gas and diesel prices continue to hit record highs, and the median sale price of a home in Pennsylvania has risen 31 percent. Among the swing states, Pennsylvania has been hit the hardest by Biden-era economic policies, which could push Donald Trump over the cusp in 2024. Trump’s appeal to the real impacts of inflation has been proven to resonate with voters, especially in states like Pennsylvania, which house a large working-class population.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin remains the closest race among the swing states, with Biden inching out President Trump less than 2 percent in the latest polls. Biden’s main economic accomplishment in Wisconsin is the announcement of Microsoft’s $3.3 billion investment to break ground on a new Artificial Intelligence center. The project is expected to create thousands of jobs in Racine and demonstrates a weakness in Former President Trump, who intended to use the land to build a Foxconn headquarters. Trump’s inability to deliver on his promise, juxtaposed to Biden’s success could pose some obstacles for the Trump campaign, who consistently boasts their impeccable record on the economy, pre-COVID.
Despite Microsoft’s new investment, the manufacturing industry under Biden has suffered, providing an opportunity for the Trump campaign to demonstrate the inefficiencies of the Inflation Reduction Act in creating tangible benefits in state economies. As of September 2022, Wisconsin has lost more than 5,000 manufacturing jobs, contributing to the rise of permanent job loss and temporary layoffs in the United States. Among businesses leaders and employers, confidence in Wisconsin’s economy has decreased, with only 22 percent having a positive outlook.
