TargetPoint just conducted our third candidate consideration poll of the year to track likely Republican voter attitudes in the early stages of the primary election.
To view the full report on all 17 of the GOP candidates click here.
Some of our immediate takeaways include:
- Carson, Fiorina and of course Trump are the big winners when it comes to increasing voter’s consideration since May. Nearly two-thirds of the electorate now says they would consider Carson - up almost 20 points from February. Fiorina has quadrupled the number of voters considering her since February. Trump more than doubled since May. Kasich also saw a nice jump going from 22% consideration to 31%, but he also saw a corresponding jump in number saying they would not consider him.
- Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Huckabee, Christie, and Graham are all pretty much in the same shape that they were in in May. The number of people ruling out Cruz, however, did spike up to 31%, compared to 22% in May.
- Walker is still on solid footing with the GOP electorate, but may be at a bit of crossroads, as his support has dropped in each of the past two surveys. The next few weeks and especially the next debate will provide him with an opportunity to reverse that trend.
- Santorum, Jindal and especially Paul and Perry saw erosion in the number of people considering them. Their need to turn this around is immediate.
- Rubio remains very popular with the Republican electorate, but also remains unable to fully coalesce that popularity into a clear preference for him. No one in the field has more room to grow than Rubio.
- We do see a gender gap emerging for Trump, with 62% of men considering him and only 47% of women.
- One last note of particular significance is that if Chairman Priebus’ goal with the debates was to increase GOP enthusiasm, this survey says he has succeeded, as we see for the first time an uptick in interest overall in taking part in the primary process – evidence of GOP excitement for field following the debate.
With such dynamic candidates, policy platforms, and coverage – we fully expect candidate considerations and ballot potential to evolve in the months to come. Stay tuned for our fourth-quarter consideration poll as we continue to track our 17 GOP candidates in their race to take back the White House in 2016.
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