by Giada Pol
As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, voters are grappling with a variety of issues that will influence their decisions at the ballot box. While both economic challenges and social issues are significant factors on constituents’ minds, recent polls suggest that the economy remains the top issue of concern for most Americans.
Economic Issues
A recent national poll conducted in September found that an overwhelming 81% of registered voters say the economy will be very important to their vote in the upcoming election. In key swing states, data shows that 49% of residents consider the economy, especially inflation, as the most important issue facing the country that will determine how they vote on November 5. However, specific states like Pennsylvania and Michigan have even higher percentages according to a poll by Emerson College. Below is the percentage of voters in each swing state who say the economy is their top issue:
Increased daily expenses and worries about the future economy seem to be driving this sentiment. An August poll revealed that 45% of Americans describe current economic conditions as “poor,” while 31% say they are “only fair.” Only about a quarter (24%) view current conditions as “good.” Voters worries are especially heightened when it comes to everyday expenses: 74% of Americans express serious concerns about the price of food and consumer goods, 69% are highly concerned about housing costs, and 40% are very concerned about job availability for those who want to work.
There is significant partisan divide in how American voters perceive the economy. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) measures this by asking Americans two questions and combining the scores: how they would rate the current economic conditions in the country, and whether they believe the economy is improving or worsening. Currently, economic confidence is deeply negative among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents with their ECI score falling from -68 (Jan) to -76 (Aug), in stark contrast to the modestly positive outlook held by Democrats +16 (Jan), which has increased to +21 (Aug) after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee. Additionally, Republicans are more likely to say that they are very concerned about food prices (85%) compared to Democrats (64%).
Social Issues
While the economy remains the primary concern, social issues are still playing a significant role in shaping voter preferences. Among Republicans, the economy is a critical concern (93%), but immigration (82%), and violent crime (76%) are the other two highest-ranked issues. Democrats emphasize health care (76%) and Supreme Court appointments (73%) as their leading issues in terms of voting decisions. A NYT poll found that 33% of Independents consider the economy and inflation as their top concern followed by immigration and abortion both at 11%.
Immigration
Immigration has grown as a critical issue with about 61% of voters now saying that immigration is very important to their vote – 13 points higher than during the 2022 congressional elections. Among Harris supporters, 39% say immigration is very important to their vote, an 8-point increase from Democratic congressional supporters in 2022. Among Republican supporters, there was a 12-point increase from 70% in 2022 to 82% in 2024.
Abortion
Abortion also continues to be a pivotal issue. Two out of three Harris supporters call abortion very important to their vote – however, this support has seen a 7-point decrease when comparing it to 2022 (74%). Among Trump voters, the importance of abortion has also declined with 35% now saying that abortion is important to their vote – 5 points lower than in the 2022 elections. Only a small portion (11%) of Independent respondents consider abortion their primary concern.
Voters Confidence on Candidates
A significant factor in voters’ electoral decision-making is how much they trust the presidential candidates to address these pivotal issues.
On economic matters, Americans are optimistic about their financial prospects under former President Trump, with a 2-to-1 margin believing they would be better off financially under his leadership. This optimism is largely driven by Republicans 79% of whom expect economic improvement under Trump, compared to just 48% of Democrats who believe the same about Kamala Harris.
Beyond economic concerns, Donald Trump also enjoys higher confidence in immigration and foreign policy. Fifty-one percent of voters trust Trump to make effective foreign policy decisions, compared to 45% who feel the same about Kamala Harris. On immigration, Trump’s confidence rating is slightly higher at 52%, compared to 45% for Harris. However, voters have more confidence in Harris rather than Trump on addressing issues of race and abortion, with 55% of voters expressing confidence in her policy regarding abortion, compared to 44% for Trump. Additionally, despite her background as a District and State Attorney, Harris struggles to match Trump’s confidence levels on law enforcement and criminal justice issues, with 51% of voters favoring Trump over Harris’s 47%.
In summary, the economy is clearly the more dominant of the issues as we approach the 2024 election for voters supporting both the Republican and the Democrat candidates. Most voters prioritize lower inflation and the cost of food and consumer goods while social issues take a back seat to economic concerns. This reflects a shared urgency across party lines to ease economic challenges facing the nation. For Republican voters, immigration and crime have become increasingly important. Meanwhile Democrats prioritize healthcare and Supreme Court appointments. It will be intriguing to analyze exit polls post-election to determine how these priorities influenced voter decisions and the overall election results.
