Target Point

Hardball on our Tea Party Poll

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POLITICO/TargetPoint Tea Party Exit Poll

POLITICO & TargetPoint Consulting partnered on a first of its kind exit poll of actual Tea Party rally attendees. Full results and findings below.

To this point, our understanding of the Tea Party movement has been shaped in two ways: first, by media coverage of the signs and speakers that appear at a Tea Party event, and second, by phone surveys identifying those favorable towards, supportive of, or actively participating in the movement. While these methods are insightful, they are each inherently flawed.  Typical media coverage focuses almost exclusively on the most radical and sensational parts of the protest.  Phone surveys do a good job of analyzing those that support the movement, but they cannot provide true portraits of Tea Party activists because participation levels tend to be overstated when collected by phone.  

Moreover, the Tea Party movement is unique in that it is exclusively defined by its rallies. There is no official platform, national committee, or spokesperson.  Rather, when we think about the Tea Party, we think specifically about its rallies and protests.  To truly understand the Tea Party, we need to understand the people that attend Tea Party events.

TargetPoint Consulting and POLITICO have addressed these issues by taking a statistically valid snapshot of actual attendees at a Tea Party event through a partnership on an “exit poll” survey of 457 people at the Washington DC Tax Day Tea Party rally the evening of April 15, 2010 on the Washington Monument grounds.  Our findings are detailed in the memo embedded below, and will also be released over the next few days on this blog...

The Politics of Census Participation

Despite recent news reports to the contrary, Republican-leaning counties are actually more likely to have completed and returned their 2010 Census forms. 

With prominent Republican politicians and media figures such as Michelle Bachman and Glenn Beck discouraging Americans’ compliance with this year’s Census, there has been justifiable concern about how this might affect Republican participation rates.  To this date, there is no cause for alarm.

Statistical analysis shows us that in general, the higher McCain’s margin over Obama (measured as a percentage), the higher the Census participation rate was for that county.  Indeed, this relationship holds even when we control for other mitigating factors such as race and income...

Party ID Trends March 2010

After a reasonably successful run in 2009, including great races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, and the stunning Republican Senate pickup on Massachusetts  we enter an election cycle with Republicans feeling optimistic for the first time since 2004.    Republican pollsters and consultants can now point out, that for the first time in years, independents lean Republican...

2nd Survey of MI Political Insiders

An Insiders’ Look at Politics in the Great Lakes State

TargetPoint along with its Partners Kolt Communications and Sterling Corporation have released the second set of findings in 2010 from their Capitol Caucus (full press release here). 

This poll focuses on the two parties' nomination races for Attorney General...