TargetPoint has recently conducted a survey looking towards the primary race for the GOP candidate in the Michigan US Senate election. We can conclude from this survey that Mike Rogers is the clear forerunner and the best candidate to defeat the Democrats in the general election. He has broad appeal across GOP voting groups and is focused on issues such as immigration that are top-of-mind for voters. Read below for further details.
As the filing deadline approaches for the US Senate seat in Michigan, Mike Rogers has firmly established himself as the candidate who can best unite the party, defeat the Democrats, and ensure that President Trump is re-elected. That is the obvious conclusion from our most recent polling which was conducted February 14-17 among 600 likely GOP Primary voters statewide. 350 by web, 125 by landline, 125 by cell phone with a margin of error: 4%.
Mike currently leads with 32% of the vote, nearly twice the vote share of his nearest competitor with the rest of the field mired in single digits. This includes Sandy Pensler, whose first TV ad campaign was launched in January, has failed to gain more than 4% of the vote.
The Great Lakes Conservatives Fund (GLCF) ad campaign, focused on securing our southern border and our neighborhoods, has served to consolidate Mike’s support and drive the GOP discussion. Mike’s information flow is nearly 4:1 positive to negative among those who have read, seen, or heard about Mike recently. The ad campaign run by GLCF also clearly stuck home and stuck with primary voters as nearly 64% of primary voters agree with a statement that summarizes the message of the GLCF; “As a former soldier and law enforcement officer, I believe Mike Rogers is the kind of person we can trust to fight to secure the border and battle the drug cartels.”
Nearly 90% of the primary electorate say the threat from illegal immigration is a problem and 61% rank it a 10-out-of-10 problem. Among this group most concerned about immigration, 72% agree Mike has the right background and they are supporting him better than 3:1 over his closest rival, with Sandy Pensler getting less than 5% of the vote among this huge and critical voting bloc.
It is also clear that Mike is the only candidate prepared to consolidate support
It is also clear that Mike is the only candidate prepared to consolidate support across the party and turn towards the November elections. Mike is easily topping the ballot among all GOP voting groups:
| Mike Rogers | Sandy Pensler | Others | |
| Self-ID MAGA Voters | 31% | 4% | 18% |
| Self-ID Traditional GOP | 38% | 3% | 24% |
| Self-ID Moderates | 28% | 6% | 27% |
Finally, there is additional good news for Mike Rogers – not only does he have a strong lead, but he still has plenty of room to grow. Among those who have reported reading, seeing, or hearing something recently about Mike Rogers, his fav / unfav stands at 57/17 and his vote share increases to 60%, compared to only 20% for those who have not read, seen, or heard anything recently. The more voters learn about Mike Rogers, the more they like him.
Mike Rogers is clearly on track to secure the GOP nomination in the Michigan primary and every poll taken since November shows this race a dead heat between Rogers and his likely Democrat opponent, Elissa Slotkin. This includes an EPIC-MRA poll released this week showing a one-point race. Now is the time for Republicans to unite around Mike so we can begin focusing on the Democrats.
