TPC’S Fifth GOP Presidential Candidate Consideration Poll

By January 28, 2016Uncategorized

Today, we’ve released results from our fifth Presidential Candidate Consideration poll (PCC), which takes a unique approach at uncovering preferences of likely Republican primary voters.

Described in the Wall Street Journal as the “smartest new data”, the PCC poll assesses respondent consideration of presidential candidates, which can be more conducive than just a simple forced choice ballot – with the GOP’s dynamic and evolving electorate.

Key findings from the poll:

  • Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Chris Christie are the only three candidates whose positions have improved since October:
  • Trump has a net consideration of +19.
  • Cruz has a net consideration of +14.
  • Christie has a net consideration of +2.
  • All other candidates have dropped in net consideration, most notably Carly Fiorina (-43) and Ben Carson (-38).
  • The derived ballot shows Trump and Cruz have doubled their levels of support while Carson’s support has decreased by half and Fiorina’s derived ballot has dropped significantly.
  • Marco Rubio still shows the greatest potential to expand his share of the ballot, but continues to struggle to convert his fans into voters.
  • The electorate is just beginning to narrow down their choices:
  • In October, the average voter had two favorites and was considering six different candidates.
  • Today, the average voter is considering only four candidates and has picked one clear favorite.
  • Rubio has a double-fronted battle – he is sharing votes with both Cruz and Christie.
  • The GOP electorate has consolidated into five political clusters, each showing top consideration for the following three candidates:
    • Traditional GOP Voters: Trump, Cruz, Carson
    • Uncommitted Conservatives: Cruz, Rubio, Carson
    • Hardcore Conservatives: Cruz, Trump, Carson
    • Pragmatic Republicans: Christie, Rubio, Bush
    • Fed Up and Not Going to Take It Anymore: Trump, Cruz, Rubio

This data comes on the heels of the last GOP debate before voters head to the ballot in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary next week. If you have any questions or observations, please feel free to get in touch. Make sure to watch our blog for other insights and updates as we continue to track GOP primary voter attitudes and national trends throughout the nomination process.

To see full results of our PCC poll, follow this link: Candidate Consideration Full Results.

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